Future Space Transportation Study Released

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Future Space Transportation Requirements Study Released

More Information:

FSTS Project Summary

Andrews Space and Technology has released a study prepared for NASA on space transportation requirements which future space markets would require for the transportation system to support each studied market. The Future Space Transportation Study (FSTS) was developed by Andrews Space & Technology for NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in support of NASA NRA 8-27, to document the results of a market analysis activity which identified and investigated future space markets to determine how they will impact the design requirements of a Next Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle.

The results of the limited market analyses conducted supported the general conclusions put forth by the industry's 1994 Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) that the space launch market is in-elastic above a certain launch price point (approximately US$600 per pound) and elastic for prices below. Many of the future markets will be enabled once the frequency and cost of space access achieves thresholds that allow established terrestrial industries to earn money in space. New revenues, coming from multiple established industries, reduces the investment risk of fielding a 2nd Generation Launch System. A 2nd Generation Launch Vehicle designed to address future markets, must be designed to address the business cycles demanded by the future user community. Future markets must be developed in concert with a 2nd Generation Launch Vehicle.

The markets focused on in the FSTS study were selected based on an assessment that they might offer near term products or services and be sufficiently large and competitive to tackle the risks and invest in space. The study found that the LEO Passenger Travel market is real and exhibiting a growing demand for LEO passenger services. Unlike many other s-business opportunities, this market is exerting a “pull” for products to supply LEO Passenger transportation and infrastructure services. S-commerce, or S-business, is the use of space by a company to provide products and services, both terrestrial and extraterrestrial. Current and on-going scientific research demonstrates significant advantages of on-orbit research and manufacturing attracting the interest of pharmaceutical market leaders, with liver tissue the most likely early candidate for commercially viable space-based tissue engineering.

The FSTS study analyzed the data collected from interviews with potential customers and utilized a system engineering process to identify a broad requirements set of 50 requirement / attribute pairs. The various attribute/requirement pairs were chosen to reflect the needs of the markets to be served, while maintaining the minimum number of limitations imposed on the transportation system designer. All of the collected attributes were sorted in six major categories (Scheduling, Operations Performance, Interfaces, Business, and Provider Specific), including the important distinction between requirements imposed by the customer of a space transportation industry (Customer Specific), and those determined by the “space-line” and imposed on the vehicle manufacturer directly (Provider Specific). The resulting requirements make up the bulk of the report.

Disclaimer: Andrews Space & Technology, publisher of the FSTS report, is the company which sponsors the SPACEandTECH Digest/Flash! news service and the SPACEandTECH.com website and data base. Joe Hopkins, editor of the SPACEandTECH.com website and SPACEandTECH Digest/Flash! is the Lead Market Research Analyst for Andrews Space and Technology.

SPACEandTECH Digest is a weekly roundup of the latest industry news of interest to the space professional. SPACEandTECH Flash! is an internet push service offered by Andrews Space & Technology to bring the latest on orders, launches, and important breaking news to your desktop. SPACEandTECH Digest and SPACEandTECH Flash! are part of the Andrews Space & Technology www.spaceandtech.com website, a website designed to serve the information needs of the space industry.

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May 21, 2000