COMSTAC Publishes 2001 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Model

The Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) released their ninth annual forecast of the worldwide demand for commercial geosynchronous orbit (GSO) launches, from the perspective of the U.S. commercial space industry, titled “The 2001 Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model”. The report is prepared for the Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The report is available on the FAA AST website (or use links to right).

This year’s mission model predicts an average demand of 30.5 satellites to be launched per year over the period from 2001 through 2010, which is very similar to the average demand of 30.6 satellites per year forecast in the 2000 report. The near-term forecast, which is based on existing satellite programs for 2001 through 2003, shows 24 satellites to be launched in 2001, 28 in 2002, and 32 in 2003. The near-term launch demand forecast equates to 20 launches for 2001, 23 launches for 2002, and 27 launches for 2003. The number of projected vehicle launches per year is a subset of the satellite launch demand forecast due to the practice of multiple manifesting of satellites on launch vehicles. Low-earth orbit (LEO) and medium-earth orbit (MEO) satellites are not included in the GSO mission model.

The projected number of commercial GSO satellites in the 4082 kg to 5443 kg (9000 to 12,000 lbm) mass category, as well as in the Above 5443 (12,000 lbm) category, continues to grow. Larger satellites are typically more cost effective on a dollar per transponder basis. The cost to launch these larger satellites is decreasing with competition rising among the heavy-lift launch vehicles. The very heavy commercial satellites, over 5,445kg (>12,000 lbm), are being ordered to address specific market segments, such as broadband data communication services and mobile communication services. In addition traditional broadcast services are seeking broader scope and greater efficiencies with their systems. Global and regional satellite operators are attempting to maximize their carrying capacity and geographic coverage at prime orbital locations.  Many operators, originally authorized to provide service to specific regions, have been granted permission to expand their coverage areas to entire continents and hemispheres.

The trend toward larger satellites is complemented by what appears to be a continuing demand for smaller satellites in the Below 1,815kg (<4,000 lbm) class. Some of the same companies that are ordering heavy satellites are also ordering smaller satellites.  These smaller satellites are used to fill in specific frequency allocations where 20 to 24 transponders are needed.  In addition, emerging operators are using smaller satellites to develop new markets, while generating revenue.

Several factors, affect the projected demand and mass for satellites in the future. Potential new applications, such as mobile services or broadband systems using Ka-band spectrum, should support satellite and launch demand in the coming years. Consolidation within the space industry, with mergers, buyouts, and alliances, has created a smaller customer base, which more efficiently uses current in-orbit assets. Satellites currently operating are also experiencing longer than expected on-orbit life, which causes the orders for replacement satellites to shift further into the future. Longer design life may also be playing a role in the flattening of the demand curve. Increased on-orbit life of the current generation of GSO satellites would reduce the magnitude and increase the period of the replacement cycle for existing spacecraft.

The trend toward more functional satellites affects the total number of satellites on order. The larger satellites are typically more cost effective allowing the same number of transponders to be placed on one satellite instead of two. Also, with the demand for larger satellites, the cost to launch these satellites is coming down with the introduction of competition between the heavy-lift launch vehicles.

Finally, there seems to be a more cautious view of proposed space-based programs due to recent financial problems of some of the NGSO telecommunication systems. New business concepts using satellites are also getting more financial scrutiny, which has caused a slowdown in the startup of new ventures.

Inaugural flights of several new families of launch vehicles are planned during the coming twelve months. These new launch vehicles will be introduced using newly designed components and subsystems. This year, the first flight for the Japanese H-IIA launch vehicle is scheduled to occur. Next year, the first flights of the Boeing Delta IV and Lockheed Martin Atlas V rockets are scheduled. If all of these new enterprises are successful, competition among Launch Services providers for the heavier classes of satellites can be expected to increase and the availability of capable and competitively priced launch services should facilitate a modest trend toward heavier satellites. Any failures of one or more of these new systems will cause delays in, or migration of, scheduled launches, but since alternative launch servicess are limited, the expected launch demand in a given year is likely to be deferred into the following year.  

The COMSTAC report presents an update of the worldwide commercial geosynchronous orbit (GSO) satellite mission model for the period 2001 through 2010. It is based on market forecasts obtained in early 2001 from major satellite manufacturers, satellite operators and launch service providers. The report is not a forecast of actual launches for any given year. It is a forecast of the demand for launches, i.e., the number of launches needed to fulfill the projected delivery of satellite orders in a given year. The number of actual launches for that year will then depend on other factors such as satellite delivery, launch failures, etc.

The COMSTAC commercial mission model is updated annually, and is prepared from the inputs of commercial companies across the satellite and launch industries. This COMSTAC report includes both a satellite and a launch demand forecast. Satellite demand is derived by forecasting the number of satellites to be placed in GSO that are open to internationally competed launch service procurements. To determine the number of possible launches in a year, the satellite demand is decreased by the number of satellites forecast to be launched in multiple-manifest launch configurations.

Disclaimer:  Joe Hopkins, Andrews Space and Technology Lead Market Analyst and editor of SPACEandTECH Digest participated in the preparation of this COMSTAC GSO forecast.

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