FAA
Releases 2000 NGSO Launch Demand Model
The
Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
released their annual forecast of the worldwide demand for
commercial non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) launches, titled “The
2000 Commercial Space
Transportation Projections for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)”.
This is the seventh
annual assessment prepared by the FAA of launch demand for
commercial space launches other than geosynchronous orbit
satellites. The report is available on the FAA
AST website.
The FAA report projects two
scenarios. The baseline scenario projects that 522 satellites may
be deployed between 2000 and 2010, down 38 percent form 1999
baseline projections of 975 satellites. The baseline scenario
projects the deployment of two Little LEO systems (in addition to
Orbcomm), one Big LEO system (in addition to Iridium and
Globalstar), and one Boradband LEO system. Replenishment of
Iridium is not expected. A more robust scenario projects that 685
satellites may be deployed over the next 11 years, also a
reduction of 38 percent from 1999 projections of 1195 satellites.
The robust scenario projects deployment of three Little LEOs (in
addition to Orbcomm), two Big LEOs (in addition to Iridium and
Globalstar), and two Broadband systems, again with replenishment
of Iridium not expected. The robust scenario models both a LEO
broadband system, similar to SkyBridge, and a generic broadband
MEO system.
This
forecast downturn is the result of difficulties encountered by
NGSO systems over the past year, such as the failure of Iridium
and bankruptcy of ICO.
| Baseline |
'00 |
'01 |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
Total |
Avg |
| Broadband |
0 |
0 |
4 |
26 |
14 |
20 |
24 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
24 |
136 |
12.4 |
| Big LEO |
6 |
11 |
9 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
27 |
24 |
16 |
4 |
4 |
112 |
10.2 |
| Little LEO |
8 |
2 |
10 |
38 |
38 |
30 |
17 |
7 |
7 |
38 |
40 |
235 |
21.4 |
| Other |
9 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
69 |
6.3 |
| Launch
Demand |
| < 5000 lbm |
7 |
7 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
10 |
10 |
9 |
9 |
13 |
14 |
114 |
10.4 |
| > 5000 lbm |
6 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
5 |
14 |
10 |
8 |
4 |
8 |
82 |
7.5 |
| *Because
the report was prepared by the U.S. government, primary
units are presented in lbm |
The
report assesses launch demand for small < 2269 kg (< 5000
lbm) and medium to heavy > 2269 kg (> 5000 lbm) launch
vehicle sizes, though in some instances an exact mix is unknown.
Launch demand for the baseline scenario projects an annual average
of 7.5 medium to heavy vehicles and 10.4 small launches from 2000
to 2010. Demand for medium-to-heavy launchers is halft that
projected in 1999, while the small launcher demand is expected to
remain the same as 1999. The launch demand for the robust scenario
is projected to be an annual average of 11.6 medium-to-heavy
launch vehicles and 13.1 small launchers for the 2000 to 2010 time
period of the forecast. Demand for the medium-to-heavy launch
vehicles is close to half that projected in 1999, though the small
vehicle launch projections remain the same.
| Robust |
'00 |
'01 |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
Total |
Avg |
| Broadband |
0 |
0 |
4 |
36 |
25 |
21 |
25 |
19 |
19 |
9 |
25 |
183 |
16.6 |
| Big LEO |
6 |
11 |
11 |
14 |
14 |
4 |
28 |
25 |
17 |
17 |
17 |
164 |
14.9 |
| Little LEO |
8 |
8 |
10 |
38 |
38 |
30 |
17 |
7 |
13 |
38 |
40 |
247 |
22.5 |
| Other |
11 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
91 |
8.3 |
| Launch
Demand |
| < 5000 lbm |
9 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
128 |
11.6 |
| > 5000 lbm |
6 |
6 |
9 |
17 |
15 |
6 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
8 |
12 |
128 |
11.6 |
| *Because
the report was prepared by the U.S. government, primary
units are presented in lbm |
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