COMSTAC Publishes 2000
Commercial GSO Launch Demand Model
The Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) released
their eighth annual forecast of the worldwide demand for
commercial geosynchronous orbit (GSO) launches, from the
perspective of the U.S. commercial space industry, titled “The 2000
Commercial Geosynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch Demand Model”. The
report is prepared for the Office of the Associate
Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (AST) of the
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The report is available on the FAA
AST website.
This year’s mission model predicts an average demand of 30.6 satellites
to be launched per year over the period from 2000 through 2010.
This is approximately a 10% decrease in forecast demand as
compared to the forecasts of 1998 and 1999. The average annual COMSTAC demand
forecasts of 1998 and 1999 were 32.8 and 33 satellites per year,
respectively. The near-term forecast, which is based on existing
satellite programs for 2000 through 2002, shows 30 satellites to
be launched in 2000, 31 in 2001, and 35 in 2002. The near-term
launch demand forecast equates to 26 launches for 2000, 26
launches for 2001, and 30 launches for 2002. The number of
projected vehicle launches per year is a subset of the satellite
launch demand forecast due to the practice of multiple manifesting
of satellites on launch vehicles. Low-earth orbit (LEO) and
medium-earth orbit (MEO) satellites are not included in the GSO
mission model.
| Demand |
'00 |
'01 |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
Total |
Avg |
| Satellite |
30 |
31 |
35 |
31 |
32 |
31 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
39 |
30 |
337 |
30.6 |
| Launch |
26 |
26 |
30 |
25 |
25 |
23 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
258 |
23 |
The average
satellite demand over the entire forecast is lower than in previous
years. The average demand over the forecast period in the 1998 and
1999 mission models were very similar, showing approximately 33
satellites per year between 1999 and 2010 with an upswing in
demand in the later years. This year’s model shows a flatter
market with no upturn in demand in the later years. This flatter
predicted demand accounts for the drop in the 33 average GSO
satellites per year in 1998 and 1999 demand models to the 30.6 in
this year’s demand model.
The projected number of
commercial GSO satellites in the 4082 kg to 5443 kg (9000 to 12,000
lbm) mass category, as well as in the Above 5443 (12,000 lbm) category, continues to grow. Among the factors
involved in the growth of these satellites is the overall system cost.
Larger satellites are typically more cost effective on a dollar
per transponder basis. The cost to launch these larger satellites
is decreasing with competition rising among the heavy-lift launch
vehicles. Other factors include the need for higher power
satellites and onboard processing to support emerging
applications. However, smaller satellites are not expected to
disappear.
| |
'00 |
'01 |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
Avg |
% |
| <
4000 lbm |
5 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
8 |
| 4000-9000
lbm |
15 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
6 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
9.2 |
30 |
| 9000-12000
lbm |
9 |
17 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
14 |
14 |
14.3 |
47 |
| >
12000 lbm |
1 |
0 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
4.6 |
15 |
| *Because
the report is prepared for the U.S. government, primary
units are presented in lbm |
Several factors, affect the projected demand and mass for satellites in the
future. Consolidation within the space industry, with mergers,
buyouts, and alliances, has created a smaller customer base, which
more efficiently uses current in-orbit assets. Satellites
currently operating are also experiencing longer than expected
on-orbit life, which causes the orders for replacement satellites
to shift further into the future. Longer design life may
also be playing a role in the flattening of the demand curve. Increased
on-orbit life of the current generation of GSO satellites would
reduce the magnitude and increase the period of the replacement
cycle for existing spacecraft.
The trend toward more functional satellites affects the total number of
satellites on order. The larger satellites are typically more cost
effective allowing the same number of transponders to be placed on
one satellite instead of two. Also, with the demand for
larger satellites, the cost to launch these satellites is coming
down with the introduction of competition between the heavy-lift
launch vehicles.
Finally,
there seems to be a more cautious view of proposed space-based
programs due to recent financial problems of some of the NGSO
telecommunication systems. New business concepts using satellites are also getting more financial
scrutiny, which has caused a slowdown in the startup of new
ventures.
The
COMSTAC report presents an update of the worldwide commercial
geosynchronous orbit (GSO) satellite mission model for the period
2000 through 2010. It is based on market forecasts obtained in
early 2000 from major satellite manufacturers, satellite operators
and launch service providers. The report is not a forecast of actual
launches for any given year. It is a forecast of the demand for launches, i.e., the number of launches needed to fulfill
the projected delivery of satellite orders in a given year.
The number of actual launches for that year will then
depend on other factors such as satellite delivery, launch
failures, etc.
The
COMSTAC commercial mission model is updated annually, and is
prepared from the inputs of commercial companies across the
satellite and launch industries. This COMSTAC report includes both
a satellite and a launch demand forecast.
Satellite demand is derived by forecasting the number of
satellites to be placed in GSO that are open to internationally
competed launch service procurements. To determine the number of
possible launches in a year, the satellite demand is decreased by
the number of satellites forecast to be launched in
multiple-manifest launch configurations.
Disclaimer:
Joe Hopkins, Andrews Space and Technology Lead Market Analyst and
editor of SPACEandTECH Digest participated in the preparation of
this COMSTAC GSO forecast.
Copyright 2001 - Andrews Space & Technology
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