FAA
Releases 2002 NGSO Launch Demand Model
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More
Information: |
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(all reports
from FAA AST site)
|
The
Office of the Associate Administrator for Commercial Space
Transportation (AST) of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
released their annual forecast of the worldwide demand for
commercial non-geosynchronous orbit (NGSO) launches, titled “The
2002
Commercial Space
Transportation Projections for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO)”.
This is the eighth annual assessment prepared by the FAA of launch demand for
commercial space launches other than geosynchronous orbit
satellites. The report is available on the FAA
AST website (or use links to right).
The FAA report projects two scenarios. The baseline scenario projects
that 79 satellites may be deployed between
2002 and 2011, down 48 percent form 2001 baseline projections of
151 satellites. The decline is largely attributable to fewer
systems in the baseline, with few replacements for existing
systems, and the removal of broadband systems from the forecast. A
more robust scenario projects that 132 satellites may be deployed
over the next 10 years, also a reduction of 48 percent from
2001
projections of 252 satellites.
This
forecast downturn is the result of difficulties encountered by
NGSO systems over the past two years, such as the bankruptcy of
Iridium, ICO and OrbComm and the slow subscriber growth at Iridium
and Globalstar.
| Baseline |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
'11 |
Total |
Avg |
| Broadband |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Big LEO |
7 |
0 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
2.5 |
| Little LEO |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| Observation |
1 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
20 |
2.0 |
| Other |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
34 |
3.4 |
| Launch
Demand |
<
2269 kg
(< 5000 lbm) |
1 |
1 |
11 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
24 |
2.4 |
>
2669 kg
(> 5000 lbm) |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
3 |
39 |
3.9 |
The
report assesses launch
demand for small < 2269 kg (< 5000 lbm) and medium to heavy
> 2269 kg (> 5000 lbm) launch vehicle sizes, though in some
instances an exact mix is unknown. Launch demand for the baseline
scenario projects an annual average of 3.9 medium to heavy
vehicles and 2.4 small launches from
2002 to 2011. The launch
demand for the robust scenario is projected to be an annual
average of 5.1 medium-to-heavy launch vehicles and 3.2 small
launchers for the 2002 to 2011 time period of the forecast.
| Robust |
'02 |
'03 |
'04 |
'05 |
'06 |
'07 |
'08 |
'09 |
'10 |
'11 |
Total |
Avg |
| Broadband |
0 |
0 |
8 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
1.2 |
| Big LEO |
7 |
0 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
2.5 |
| Little LEO |
0 |
0 |
6 |
24 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
3.2 |
| Observation |
1 |
2 |
8 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
23 |
2.3 |
| Other |
2 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
40 |
4.0 |
| Launch
Demand |
<
2669 kg
(< 5000 lbm) |
1 |
1 |
15 |
10 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
32 |
3.2 |
>
2669 kg
(> 5000 lbm) |
4 |
4 |
5 |
8 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
5 |
52 |
5.1 |
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